Storm surges could rise 15% by 2100
A new study by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) has developed projections for the dynamics of storm surges across Europe’s coasts.
The JRC developed their projections for the periods 2010-2040, considered a short-term scenario, and 2070-2100, to assess more long-term behaviours of storm surges, also known as meteorological tide. The projections show that, while minimal change is expected on Europe’s southern coasts, there are likely to be large increases in storm surges along the coasts of the North and Baltic seas.
As part of a team including the University of Aegean, Greece, and Deltares, the Netherlands, the JRC established the period 1970-2000 as a baseline for its predictions, and took into account several factors, such as carbon emissions, rising sea levels and rising global temperatures.
The findings also showed that storm surge levels could rise by around 15% on average by 2100 under a high emission scenario, and that this could drive the rise in sea level. Along some parts of the European coastline, more than 30% of the expected rise in sea level could be attributed to an increase in storm surges. Along with waves and tidal oscillations, storm surges are the main components of extreme water levels along the coast, and tracking and being able to predict where they might happen is an urgent matter which the JRC intends to explore further.
