More severe droughts expected in Europe

Scientists from the Joint Research Council (JRC) and the University of Kassel in Germany have published a study in which they reveal that European droughts will occur more intensely and frequently by the end of this century.

Climate change will lead to many river basins, especially those in southern parts of Europe, becoming more prone to periods of reduced water supply. The minimum flow levels of rivers and streams could decline by up to 40%, while periods of water deficiency could increase by up to 80% in the Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Italy and the Balkans.

Growth in population will also lead to an increased demand for water for irrigation and industry, which will result in even bigger reductions in river flow levels. The study showed that intensive water use will exacerbate drought conditions by 10-30% in southern, western and central Europe, including parts of the UK.

Climate and hydrological models were used to quantify future water consumption by different sectors under different scenarios up to 2100 for all European river basins. This allowed scientists to evaluate changes in drought magnitude and severity during this century.

The cost of droughts in Europe over the past thirty years has amounted to over €100bn. The results were published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences.